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Eyewitness News 4 at 6 KOB (NBC)Albuquerque, NM DMA: 44 May 05 2009 6:00PM MDT Programming Type: News Est. Households/Views: 51552 Est. Publicity Value: $1153 (30 Seconds) $6918 (Total)
we'll have more on when those schools will re- open in a moment. but first -- as the current outbreak concerns begin to subside -- health experts are trying to forecast if the h-1-n-1 virus could stage a dangerous comeback later this year. gadi schwartz visited
los
alamos national lab where researchers say an outbreak this fall could spread very quickly.// world health officials warn second and third outbreaks of an
influenza virus are usually the worst. today we visited
los
alamos national lab. researchers there created a program there several years ago to map out what a bird flu pandemic would look like. now they're using it for the h- 1-n-1 virus.// the top is the worst case the bottom is one of the interventions that we studied- dots on a map- at
los
alamos national
laboratory projecting that the h1n1 outbreak may soon be over.. but not for good. its almost certain it will die out in the next few weeks to a month or so as we enter summer its when we come into flu season in the fall that's what we need to worry about. scientists predict the swine
influenza could flare up again when flu season begins this fall. and by that time a vaccine should be ready. now this top map in the visualization lab shows how a virus can spread through a massive population in just a couple months if there are no steps taken to stop it. "it on takes a few people travelling to start a new outbreak in a community." the map on the bottom shows what will happen if that same population develops a treatment -- the virus has a hard time spreading. we are going to have another 6 months to learn how it elves how it responds to treatment and vaccines are developed so we should be prepared by the fall. researchers offer one final warning. this virus is new -- and that usually means much more contagious... 2:50 every infected person may infect on average 2 other people and thats what we used in this model 2 but in the normal seasonal flu every person infects only slightly more than 1 person. the
los
alamos national lab also has scientists running similar models on what could happen to the economy during a major pandemic. in santa fe gs ewn4 most of the 16 schools that shut down because of flu concerns will re-open over the next two days. carlsbad high school, deming intermediate school, and la promesa elementary in veguita will resume classes tomorrow. socorro schools will re- open thursday lordsburg school officials will decide tomorrow when to re-open. cleaning crews in socorro spent the day washing down schools -- hoping to disinfect any germs or viruses that may have found their way inside. state health officials say... "there is no reason right now for schools in new mexico to be closed for health purposes. we baseour decision on the cdc guidance, and
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